BT share price forecast after earnings: is it a buy or sell?

BT share price rose modestly after the company published mixed financial results. It jumped by over 2.7%, reaching a high of 185p, its highest level in over a week. It remains 16% below its highest level this year as investors watch the progress of its turnaround.

BT Group earnings report

BT Group, the giant telecom company, published its financial results as Allison Kirby’s turnaround efforts continued. Its reported revenue dropped by 3% to £9.8 billion as the company’s legacy business continued to deteriorate.

The consumer segment made £4.6 billion, down by 3% from the same period last year. Its international business, which the management is existing, also continued to deteriorate, reaching £1.1 billion. 

Most importantly, the perennially underperforming business segment made £2.5 billion, down by 2% from the same period last year. 

The company’s profitability dropped slightly during the quarter, with the adjusted EBITDA moving to £4.13 billion to £4.12 billion, with the next international segment falling by 27% to £66 million.

Kirby noted that the company’s adjusted revenue for the year will be £20 billion, while the adjusted EBITDA will be between £8.2 billion and £8.3 billion.

The management anticipates sustained revenue growth starting from 2027, while its capital expenditure will drop by £1 billion by the end of the decade.

This capital expenditure will drop because it has already achieved most of the needed investments. For example, over 85% of the users have access to 5G, while its OpenReach capex will continue to fall as most customers are connected.

Its savings in the first half of FY’26 stood at over £247 million, which brought its cumulative total to £1.2 billion in the last 18 months. The company now hopes to achieve a £3 billion in savings in this program. In a statement, Kirby said:

“BT’s transformation is delivering ahead of plan, as our UK focus and radical simplification and modernisation are helping to offset declines from our International and legacy businesses and higher labour-related costs since the start of this tax year.”

BT share price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the BT stock price has plunged in the past few days. It has dropped from a high of 218p, where it formed a double-top pattern, which is a common bearish sign in technical analysis.

The stock has now moved below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and is about to form a mini-death cross pattern, which often leads to more downside.

BT share price has moved below the Major S/R pivot point of the Murrey Math Lines tool. It has also moved below the Ichimoku cloud and the Supertrend indicator.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the stock remains under pressure in the coming weeks. A move below the key support level at 179p will point to more downside, potentially to the next key support at 175p. A move above the resistance at 197p will invalidate the bearish outlook.

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