Palladium price remains range-bound with limited upside potential compared to its substitute; platinum. In the short term, it is finding support in the easing of the US dollar rebound and steady safe-haven appeal. Besides, increasing bets on a dovish Fed during its December meeting are a bullish driver.

Palladium price forecast points to curbed upside potential

Precious metals have had a strong year as persistent economic uncertainties push institutions and individual investors to these conventional safe-haven assets. While gold has led the pack, hitting 50 fresh all-time highs ytd, platinum has recorded an impressive performance. Indeed, it has outperformed gold, rallying by 72% compared to the lustrous metal’s 58%. 

In addition to the rising demand in hybrid vehicles, its positioning as a cheaper alternative to gold for jewelry and investment has bolstered its prices. In comparison, palladium price has had the weakest performance among the precious metals. 

UBS expects the palladium market to be slightly undersupplied into 2026; prompting it to raise its forecast by $50 an ounce. However, while the market sentiment remains positive, it is leaning more towards neutral compared to earlier in the year. 

Notably, the optimism that defined the palladium market at the start of 2025 stemmed from concerns that US sanctions would target Russian palladium exports. With the country accounting for about 40% of the global supply, the move would intensify the demand/supply imbalance. However, those woes have eased as Russian exports continue to flow into the global market.

In the short-to-medium term, palladium price is set to find support in the expectations of a moderate supply deficit in the coming year. Besides, the precious metal has been included in the ongoing Section 232 investigation into imports of processed critical minerals and their derivative products. 

Nonetheless, other precious metals like platinum and silver are set to have a stronger upside potential compared to palladium price, atleast in the short term. Since the start of the year, palladium price has been up by about 56%. In comparison, the platinum price has rallied by 72% as it has become a preferred alternative to the more expensive gold. 

Palladium price technical analysis

Palladium price chart | Source: TradingView

The Palladium price edged higher on Wednesday, even as it remains within a tight range. After momentarily dropping below the support level of $1,367 late last week, the precious metal is now at $1,409 as at the time of writing. Notably, that coincides with the short-term 25-day EMA, which has been its resistance level for about a week now. 

In the short term, palladium price will likely remain within a tight range as it continues to find support along the bullish trendline highlighted in black. As such, the range between $1,367 and $1,450 will be worth watching.

Even with further rebounding, the bulls may not attract enough buyers to retest the month’s high at $1,500; at least in the short term. More specifically, $1,484 will be a steady resistance level in the ensuing sessions. On the flip side, this cautiously bullish thesis will remain valid for as long as palladium price holds above the lower Bollinger band at $1,350.

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